FRASER VALLEY REAL ESTATE REPORT: JANUARY 2024
Observations, Opinions, Trends and Analysis of Suburban Vancouver BC Housing Markets
2024 got off to a surprisingly strong start in the Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate markets. Compared to a month earlier and a year prior, the month of January 2024 was an overall positive one. Below are my key takeaways from residential real estate activity in the Fraser Valley, for January 2024.
The Market Backdrop
The Bank of Canada once again left it’s key benchmark interest rate unchanged in January 2024. For now, it looks like the BOC might be done with it’s interest rate hiking campaign and is in a wait and see mode.
For now, mortgage rates seem to be holding mostly steady at their current levels.
Sales in January rose after 6 consecutive months of decline.
What Stood Out to Me in January 2024
Sales numbers were up from December 2023 by 12%, up 50% from January 2023 but still below the 10-year average for sales in the region.
The average days on market to sell a home was still quite low: 44 days for detached houses, 33 days for townhomes and 41 days for apartments. This means there is still steady demand for homes.
The sales-to-active listings ratio overall was 19% indicating a balanced market for the housing market as a whole. For the three main property types, the ratio was 19% for detached houses, 34% for townhomes and 27% for condo apartments.
Fraser Valley townhomes clearly continue to be in high demand and it’s a seller’s market in this segment. To a lesser extent, apartments are also in a clear seller’s market.
Active listings in January were 4,877, up by 4% versus December 2023 and up by 18% compared to January 2023.
My Take on the Current Housing Market
There was a surge in new listings in January of 2,368 listings coming to market. This was up a whopping 151% compared to the month prior.
It is worth watching closely to see if we continue to see more and more new listings coming to market or if January was a one off.
It is positive to see active listings climbing. More selection of homes for sale helps ensure enough competition among sellers to keep the market in balance. We need a buildup in active listings this spring to keep things in balanced market conditions. Otherwise, the pent-up demand of sidelined buyers could put upward pressure on prices yet again.
What I’m Watching in the Months Ahead
It may be the case that the Bank of Canada stays on pause for a little while longer. Whether they actually proceed with rate cuts in 2024 could have a big impact on market psychology. If they do cut, how much and how often will strongly shape the real estate market this year. It could reignite buyer motivation to purchase if affordability can be improved for shut-out buyers.
Inventory levels of active listings is currently better than the record lows seen in recent years. If the level of distressed sellers putting their homes up for sale remains relatively low, then prices may hold up better than a lot of people expect.
The unemployment rate remains very low and the labour market still seems good. The job market will greatly influence consumer confidence and peoples’ willingness to jump into homeownership.
Home Prices Across the Fraser Valley
Housing Market Update by City (stats)
North Delta & Surrey Central Housing Activity
North Surrey & Cloverdale Housing Activity
South Surrey, White Rock & Langley Housing
Abbotsford & Mission Housing Market Activity
Disclaimer:
This publication is not intended to cause or induce breach of existing agency agreements.
The views contained within are my own and not those of any organizations I may be affiliated with.
Statistical data is deemed accurate as of the date of publication and based on available board information at that time. Please verify accuracy of stats independently, if deemed important.
This newsletter is not for investment advice and only reflects my observations. Please seek qualified professional advice, before making any disposition or acquisition decisions.